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The house I had listed in Carmel Valley closed yesterday for $1,080,000.  We hit the MLS on the morning of Thursday, April 5th, and the marketing began right away withYouTube video on the blog, the 48-hour Facebook ad (above), and open house on the weekend.

Carmel Valley has been the hottest market in North County, so it was no surprise that we were getting 300+ hits on the ad and on the Zillow page.

The only offer was submitted on Tuesday, April 10th, and we questioned whether to counter at $1,090,000, or just accept the $1,080,000.  We used this graph below to help decide it the phone wasnt ringing, and the Zillow views were dropping quickly:

The initial urgency around a new listing dwindles faster than ever, and it doesnt get better later, unless other higher-priced new listings happen nearby.

Is it a sign of a slowing market?  Or just the reality of real estate sales in 2018?

Buyers have ample internet tools, and are making decisions in an instant.

Posted byJim the Realtoron May 15, 2018 inCarmel ValleyJims Take on the MarketMarket Conditions1 comment

Its that time again more school bonds! In an area like Carmel Valley where there is already Mello-Roos bonds on the books, it feels like doubling up you may want to get involved!

A recent survey showed that voter sentiments have not changed significantly on a potential Del Mar Union School District (DMUSD) bond in November 2018 to address facilities needs.

At the school boards Feb. 28 meeting Adam Sonenshein, vice president of FM3 Research and Associates, reported that support for a bond is right at the 55 percent necessary to pass, 10 points below where the measure tested in 2016.

The Carlsbad Unified School District which is still paying for the last bond issue of $198 million through 2035 is considering more bonds too:

Carlsbad Unified School District (CUSD) has provided an extraordinary education in an inspiring environment to students in our community since 1958. Our world-class elementary, middle and high schools improve our quality of life and protect the value of our homes.

We are proud of the education that our district provides, but some of our schools were built more than 50 years ago and dont have the modern classrooms, science labs or instructional technology that local students need. Our older schools need upgrades to meet the same academic and safety standards as newer schools.

In order to succeed in college and careers, local students need to be skilled in the use of todays technologies and have a solid background in science, math, engineering and technology. Local schools need to be updated to ensure that school buildings, science labs, technology and facilities can continue to support high achievement.

State funding for school improvements is limited. In order to maintain high-quality education in local schools,the CUSD Board of Trustees is considering placing a bond measure on an upcoming ballot to generate up to $328 million for facility repairs and updates.

Posted byJim the Realtoron May 14, 2018 inJims Take on the MarketLocal Flavor1 comment

The new-listings count cooled off this week only 99 vs. 138 last week but the total number of houses in escrow jumped 9%!  Rising rates are probably playing a role in the decision-making by buyers, and the expectation of another Fed move is likely to keep the housing market hopping:

The Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise short-term interest rates at its June policy meeting and will likely follow up with another increase in September, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

Among professional forecasters surveyed in recent days, 98% predicted the Feds next rate increase will come at its June 12-13 meeting, with the average probability of a move then pegged at 85%.

We know that mortgage rates arent tied to the Fed rate, but buyers are already jittery about prices the thought of potentially-higher mortgage rates should keep them very active!

Posted byJim the Realtoron May 14, 2018 inInventoryJims Take on the Market0 comments

Posted byJim the Realtoron May 13, 2018 inJims Take on the Market0 comments

They started at $5 million, but after nearly two years, it closed for $3,525,000 (LP was $3,989,000):

Posted byJim the Realtoron May 11, 2018 inCarlsbadJims Take on the MarketView3 comments

This guy says a housing bubble is brewing because: A)  incomes arent going up as fast as homes prices, B) the cost of building materials has risen, and C) oil production should collapse.  But if gas prices go up higher, arent electric or hybrid cars the answer?  For home prices to fall, we would need desperate sellers who need the money so bad they will sell at any price, which sounds more like a boomer liquidation sale which has been elusive so far, and mitigated by reverse mortgages.

Hat tip to Richard for submitting heres the summary:

For these reasons, I see a 3 Stage Collapse of the U.S. Housing Market.  The 1st stage of the housing collapse will occur when the broader markets experience a 25-50% sell-off.  At this point, the U.S. median home price will fall 40% to $200,000.  As U.S. oil production continues to decline, we will enter the second stage as the U.S. median home price drops 60% to $120,000.

The 3rd stage of the U.S. Housing Collapse will occur likely by 2030 (or possibly sooner) as domestic oil production falls  50-75%.As Americans and citizens of the world understand that oil production will continue to decline, the value of stocks, bonds, and real estate will also continue to fall.  Which is why I see the U.S. median home price to $40,000 in the 3rd stage of the collapse.

Of course, my timing could be off by a few years, but not decades.  Either way, the notion that real estate values will always rise in the future will be DEAD for GOOD as the market is impacted negatively due to falling oil production.

Posted byJim the Realtoron May 11, 2018 inForecastsJims Take on the Market7 comments

Keith atModern San Diegohad this to report in his last newsletter (see below):

Posted byJim the Realtoron May 11, 2018 inHistoric HomesInteresting HousesJims Take on the MarketLa Jolla1 comment

Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?Contact Jim the Realtor!

1.95% fee to guarantee financing for buyer? No thanks. This start-up aims to help almost any homebuyer make an /i/web/status/99646

An example of how fast the home buyers are moving on to the next shiny object these days: Market m/i/web/status/99642

Lets use the pure auction format for all home sales: Priced to Sell: The Weird Brilliance of This Homes $1 List Ptwitter.com/i/web/status/99640

The full list! Top Gun Filming Sites in San Diego You Can /2018/05/top-viavisitsandiego

Not exactly sure what they do but it sounds sexy: NFX Invests in Ribbon to Transform The Home Buying Experience:

We first encountered Jim back in 2010 when we were looking to move from Pismo Beach, CA to to San Diego area. We had been having a difficult time finding (1) finding a realtor and (2) being able to see a home since we were so far away. Then we found Jim. He made the process really easy he was able to take incredible video tours of the homes and it was as if we were there touring the homes ourselves. once we found homes we really liked, we took a trip to see it in person. One of the things we really liked about Jim was that he was honest with us about the homes and advised us weather a home was a good buy or not. He was not just out to quickly sell us a house just to make a commission. He really cared about ensuring we found the right one.more

I have followed Jims BubbleInfo blog from the early days of the bubble when real estate could only go up in value and I knew him to be a straight shooter who would not sugar coat properties nor gloss over their faults.

So when we decided to move back to California after 7 years in themore

Jim met with us prior to listing provided guidance on preparation, detailed information and stats regarding local market conditions. He was invaluable for providing contacts for repair and improvements that would provide return on investment. Our combined efforts, strategy and his attentativenessmore

Jim and Donna Klinge are an impressive team. They work extremely well together and back each other up, as well as their clients, along every step of the way. Their expert guidance made a tremendous difference in the experience we had, both buying a new home and selling our previous home of 40more

Since Zillow only allows me to write 1 review per real estate transaction, per team of agents we worked with, this is going to be a super long review.Review on Jim Klinge:

Jim Klinge is the quintessential real estate agent, the brokers, broker of real estate agents. My husband and I reachedmore

Jim and Donna are the BEST of the BEST! Their knowledge, professionalism, work ethic, and devotion to their trade are unrivaled. It was refreshing to have worked with a pair of professionals who truly understand the meaning of customer service, a lost art in our opinion. Despite living over 3,000 miles away on the opposite coast, Jim and Donna were with us every step ofmore

Jim found me a multi family property that we purchased as an investment (Please see my review of Donna Klinge for details on how it went). But the bottom line is this: I never would have found this property, which cash flows right out of the gate, if it werent for Jim pointing me toward that house. It just was not on my radar, even though I consider myself a savvy real estate troll. Jim is giving of his time, and his intelligence. And he is also transparent and truthful. And I think he is funny, which is helpful in stressful situations like RE transactions. Jim and Donna have earned every last penny they made from our deal and in fact they deserve more. And that is why I will use them for my RE transactions the rest of my life. Thank you, Jim and Donna!

I cant say enough about Jim and Donna. Jim got a great price for us and negotiated well. Donna walked us through escrow, handling vendors, and negotiating everything we asked for in the request for repairs. They are know exactly what they are doing and Ive already recommended them to two other people.

I followed Jims blog for several years and decided to contact him (along with several other realtors) when an out-of-state work relocation required me to sell my home in San Marcos, Ca. At our initially meeting, Jim spent a significant amount of time discussing pricing options, strategy, as well

Honesty. Integrity. Professionalism. Dedication. Commitment. Jim and Donna Klinge hold these attributes in abundance. They have acted as both our buyer agent and our seller agent delivering highly relevant insight into local market conditions, spot-on advice to maximize the homes value, and unparalleled management of the transaction process

I cannot imagine a better experience! Jim was our broker when my husband and I bought our first house. Jim never pressured us or glossed over anything. He was patient, knowledgeable, and helped us buy our dream home. His office was detail-oriented, always responsive and we closed in 30 days! The excellent service didnt end when we bought our house, either, the Klinges have given us excellent and fast referrals along the way. We feel privileged to have worked with such a consummate professional and appreciate how rare this level of skill is. Jim is simply the best in the field.

Jim and his team are top flight. He knows the market better than anyone, and his team ensures the deal goes through without a hitch. Theres always something at the last minute, but youd never know it with Jim and his crew. Ive bought and sold houses with Jim as my agent over the years, and I wouldnt use anyone else. Save yourself the headaches and potential costly mistakes

Buying a house is one of the most emotional,exciting, and sometimes confusing milestones youll reach for in your life! Being a buyer in this market can make it even more interesting! My husband and I have been looking to buy for a year, and when the time came we wanted a realtor team that would be on our team! Being that Im a business woman and was 7 months pregnant, I wanted, NEEDED, communication, dependability, and consistency! The Klinges went so far above and beyond

Jim was recommended to me when I bought my first house here in the US five years ago. He and Donna explained the whole process and it was a great experience to work with them. Not surprisingly, when my company asked me to relocate my first choice was to work with them again

I have followed Jims real estate blog for years and by the time I got ready to sell my townhouse I felt I knew him both personally and professionally. At our first meeting he was prepared with recent comps and listings for the area

The links below give you alternatives to accessing and other real estate-related content. The mfacebook pageincludes all the bubbleinfo posts. On thetwitter account, Jim tweets articles of general real estate interest, preceded by his descriptive comment (you dont have to have a twitter account, or follow to read it). The tweets are also displayed in the right-hand column above.

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